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14 Apr 2022

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears looking to seize control, break below 0.7400 awaited

  • AUD/USD turned lower for the second successive day amid resurgent USD demand.
  • The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for further losses.
  • Sustained weakness below the 0.7400 mark is needed to confirm the negative outlook.

The AUD/USD pair extended its steady intraday descent through the early North American session and dropped to a fresh daily low, around the 0.7415 region in the last hour.

The US dollar made a solid comeback on Thursday amid the post-ECB downfall in the shared currency and modest bounce in the US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that dragged the AUD/USD pair lower for the second successive day, though the risk-on impulse could help limit losses for the perceived riskier aussie.

From a technical perspective, the pair's inability to capitalize on the overnight goodish rebound from over a three-week low and the emergence of fresh selling favours bearish traders. That said, repeated failures to find acceptance below the 0.7400 round-figure mark warrant some caution before positioning for any further depreciating move.

The aforementioned handle also marks confluence support comprising the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.7165-0.7662 strong rally. A convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make the AUD/USD pair vulnerable to testing the 61.8% Fibo. level, around mid-0.7300s.

This is closely followed by an ascending trend-line extending from sub-0.7000 levels, or the YTD low touched in January. The said support is currently pegged around the 0.7330 region, which if broken decisively should pave the way for an extension of the recent sharp pullback from the YTD peak, around the 0.7660 region touched earlier this month.

Given that technical indicators on the daily chart have just started drifting into negative territory, the AUD/USD pair could then accelerate the downfall towards the 0.7300 mark. Some follow-through selling would make the pair vulnerable to extending the downward trajectory towards the 0.7240 region en-route the 0.7200 mark and the 0.7175-0.7170 support.

On the flip side, the daily swing high, near the 0.7465-0.7470 region, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibo. level should act as an immediate strong resistance ahead of the 0.7500 mark. Sustained strength beyond would suggest that the corrective pullback has run its course and shift the near-term bias back in favour of bullish traders.

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

fxsoriginal

Key levels to watch

 

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