EUR/NOK to trade in a 9.65-10.00 range through the rest of Q4 – Credit Suisse

Economists at Credit Suisse now expect EUR/NOK to trade in a 9.65-10.00 range through the rest of Q4. They see limited scope for the Norges Bank meeting on Thursday, November 4, to drive further NOK strength.

Stalling oil prices and reduced NOK purchases limit downside potential in EUR/NOK

“Barring a hawkish surprise from the Norges Bank, we do not see a reason for this week’s Norges Bank meeting to be a major driver of NOK price action.”

“Although we acknowledge that the commodities backdrop continues to be supportive for NOK (albeit decreasingly so) we are reluctant to upgrade our NOK target ahead of the meeting.”

“With oil prices now stalled and near-term risks poised to the downside, NOK purchases on behalf of the government markedly reduced, and market expectations already very hawkish, we struggle to see a reason to upgrade our NOK target.”

“We now see our 9.65 EUR/NOK target as a floor for the currency through Q3. We see upside limited in EUR/NOK 10.00.”