When are US monthly retail sales figures and how could they affect EUR/USD?

US Monthly Retail Sales Overview

Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for June, scheduled later during the early North American session at 12:30 GMT. The report is expected to show that the headline sales declined 0.4% during the reported month, marking the second straight month of contraction. Excluding autos, core retail sales probably rose by 0.4% in June following a 0.7% fall in the previous month.

How Could it Affect EUR/USD?

The data will serve as a gauge for the health of the economy and provide further insights into the post-pandemic recovery. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that there has not been sufficient progress that warrants scaling back the ultra-easy monetary policy. Investors, however, seem convinced that the Fed will tighten its policy sooner than expected amid rising inflationary pressure.

Hence, a stronger report will reinforce market expectations and allow the US dollar to capitalize on its recent strength to multi-month tops. Conversely, the market reaction to a softer than expected reading might turn out to be limited, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the downside.

Meanwhile, Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own analyst offered a brief technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair: “Euro/dollar is suffering from downside momentum on the four-hour chart and has slipped back below the 50 Simple Moving Average. As the Relative Strength Index is outside oversold territory, there is room for more falls.”

Yohay also provided some important technical levels to trade the major: “Immediate support is at the daily low of 1.18, followed by 1.1770, July's trough. Further down, 1.1740 and 1.17 are eyed. EUR/USD has resistance at 1.1850, Thursday's peak, followed by the stubborn 1.1880 level and then by 1.19.”

Key Notes

 •  US June Retail Sales Preview: Analyzing major pairs' reaction to previous releases

 •  EUR/USD Forecast: New lows in sight? US data, Delta and technicals all point lower

 •  EUR/USD Price Analysis: Scope for extra losses

About US Retail Sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).