USD/CHF: Bulls laying out their trade-plan for a run back to 0.9250

• A 0.9250 target is set on the weekly time frame based on a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and confluence.
• Bulls will need to see a break to the upside beyond resistance line and hold above the 4-HR 21 moving average. 

USD/CHF is stalling in its bearish impulse and the weekly chart is showing deceleration which brings the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level into scope.

The daily retest of structure which supports adds to the conviction of the upside prospects. 

Bulls will need to see a break to the upside prior to looking for an appropriate entry point, but the stars are aligning for a convincing bullish trade set up on a swing basis.

The following is a top-down analysis, starting with the monthly chart to illustrate the work plan that has gone into making this bullish assumption, with the caveat that there need to be technical developments on the four-hour time frame prior to designing the trade set-up.

Monthly Doji

The monthly Doji candlestick is offering the prospects of a turning point in the pair.The price has just so happened to meet a prior low offering structure. 

Weekly target

The bulls can target a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest bearish impulse as the deceleration unfolds.

Daily price action clues

The daily chart offered a clue or two prior to the retest of the recent support structure.

The price faked out to below the double bottoms to form a head or a developing reverse head and shoulders pattern

Then the price retested the support structure which is to be expected prior to the next impulse higher, to form the right-hand shoulder and complete the bullish pattern.

4HR chart: Waiting for bullish structure

The price was volatile over the Jackson Hole which has diluted the conviction of the wedge. 

However, putting that aside, the upside prospects are compelling for the upside on a break of wedge resistance.

Bulls will need to base their entry on a bullish structure forming outside of the wedge, which could be a retest of and subsequent hold of the wedge so long as the price is above the 21 moving average. 

A beak above 0.91 the figure with a restest and hold would equally be a convincing bullish structure from which to enter.

Supporting the conviction for a long, a momentum indicator such as MACD would ideally need to be in positive territory as well.