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19 Aug 2020

Gold feels good, things could not be better – TDS

It turns out that the gold uptrend can last quite a long time. Nonetheless, when a correction arrives, the yellow metal could see a drop over 17%, according to Daniel Ghali, Commodity Strategist at TD Securities. Currently, gold is hovering near the lower end of its daily trading range, around the $1985 region.

Key quotes

“It feels good to be a gold bug. After all, it's been hard to lose money being long. In fact, the bulls are rushing to buy the yellow metal with nearly +100% of momentum signals tracked by our ChartVision indicator pointing long, leading to +93% of signals long on a 60d moving average basis. The underlying macro tailwinds are only analogous to the financial repression in the post-WWII era, which provides an incredibly compelling narrative for higher gold prices.”

“But, how long can a good thing last? It turns out, it can last for quite some time. Despite a small sample size, instances of consecutive extreme readings in momentum signals have historically averaged at 45 days, but with a wide distribution. In other words, timing a momentum overshoot is incredibly difficult.” 

“What is more clear, is what comes next, when momentum stops paying. As upside momentum subsides following extreme instances, forward returns tend to be skewed negatively, with sharp drawdowns and limited upside. A consolidation period could last for months, with subsequent drawdowns over 17%. Don't fight the trend, unless it shows a sign of weakness.” 

 

Aug 19, 2020

S&P 500 opens little changed near record high it set at 3,395

Major equity indexes in the US opened little changed on Wednesday as investors seem to be opting out to remain on the sidelines while waiting for the
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Aug 19, 2020

Gold Price Analysis: On the defensive near 200-hour SMA/23.6% Fibo. confluence support

Gold maintained its offered tone through the early North American session, albeit lacked any follow-through selling and so far, has managed to hold ab
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