Australia's economic rebound depends on virus situation – Reuters poll

The latest Reuters poll of 35 analysts showed that the Australian economy is likely to stage an upturn in the coming months, although the risks to the rebound persist amid fresh lockdowns in Melbourne and Sydney.

Key findings

“Australia’s A$2 trillion ($1.43 trillion) of annual gross domestic product (GDP) would still shrink a stark 3.8% for 2020 as a whole, and suffer its first recession since 1991.

Yet the economy is predicted to expand 1.3% this quarter and next, following an expected 7.0% slide in the June quarter when much of the economy was locked down.

Growth of 3.1% in 2021 was the median forecast, though it will likely be a couple of years before all the COVID-19-related losses are made up.

Analysts doubt all this stimulus will be any threat to inflation, with forecasts for consumer prices more than halved to just 0.6% for 2020 and trimmed to 1.6% for 2021. In April the respective forecasts were for 1.5% and 2.0%.”