Forex Today: Cautiously optimistic amid mixed coronavirus news, ahead of key macro data
FX today in Asia was a quiet affair, as most major trading in a tight range amid persistent broad-based US dollar strength and cautious optimism. China’s Hubei province reported a drop in new coronavirus cases while investors continued to fret over the negative economic fallout of the virus outbreak globally, as governments stepped up measures to soften the impact.
Within the G10 currency basket, EUR/USD hit a new 34-month low at 1.0828, as the US dollar index refreshed a four-month top. The cable, on the other hand, consolidated the latest upsurge around 1.3050 amid UK Cabinet reshuffle. Meanwhile, USD/JPY fluctuated between gains and losses while below 110.00 amid mixed Asian equities, lower Treasury yields and moderate gains in the S&P 500 futures. The Aussie attempted a tepid bounce from near 0.6710 but lacked follow-through while NZD/USD traded under pressure below 0.6450.
Oil prices steadied in Asia, having offered some support to the resource-linked Loonie. The safe-haven Swiss franc appeared to be the main laggard, as USD/CHF peeked briefly above the 0.9800. mark. The traditional safety bet, gold, also traded on the back foot below $1580.
Main Topics in Asia
UK PM Johnson risks deepening tensions with US President Trump by canceling trip – The Sun
Fed's Williams: Thinks economy is in a very, very good place
Military: Rocket hits Iraq base hosting US troops – AFP
A cruise ship is in lock down in Sydney Harbour, passenger now being tested for possible coronavirus – The Australian
Japanese Eco Min Nishimura: Japan's Q4 2019 GDP 2019 likely weaker due to sales tax hike, typhoon
BoJ senior official: boj hopes to maintain powerful monetary easing to support economy
Moody's: Default risk rises for high-yield APAC corporates on slowing growth, trade policy uncertainty
China’s Hubei province reports 4,823 new cases of coronavirus
China’s NHC reports 5,090 new coronavirus cases for Thursday
BOK’s Lee: Working on financial help packages for the coronavirus-affected
S. Korean FinMin Hong: To deploy all available policy measures to boost domestic investment, KRW rebounds
Sources: India offers US its dairy, chicken access in bid for elusive trade deal with Trump - Reuters
Key Focus Ahead
It’s a busy economic docket and markets gear up for preliminary GDP growth numbers for Germany and Eurozone for the final quarter of 2019, due at 0700 GMT and 1000 GMT respectively. The data will grab a lot of attention, given the rising concerns over the worsening economic conditions in the Euro area’s economic powerhouse, Germany.
Also, of note remains the Swiss Producer and Import Prices data and Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymaker Amamiya’s speech while the UK political developments will also be closely watched amid a lack of fundamental news from the UK docket.
Moving on, a flurry of US economic releases will dominate the NA session, with the key Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in focus for fresh dollar trades. Oil traders will look forward to the Baker Hughes US Oil Rigs Count data due at 1800 GMT for near-term trading opportunities.
When is the German preliminary Q4 GDP and how could it affect EUR/USD?
EUR/USD is looking south, having breached key support at 1.0879 earlier this week. The spot could easily slide below 1.08 if the German preliminary Q4 GDP disappoints, bolstering recession fears.
GBP/USD looks for clear direction sub-1.3100 area
GBP/USD registers modest moves around 1.3050 amid a lack of fresh catalysts. The pair surged the previous day after a surprise resignation of FinMin Sajid Javid. The US Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index can please the momentum traders.
US Retail Sales January Preview: Jobs and consumption are the core of the US economy
Retail sales forecast to be unchanged in January. Control group and ex-automobiles categories to moderate. Labor market and consumer sentiment remain strong backers.
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment February Preview: Looking in the labor market mirror
Sentiment to moderate slightly from eight month high. Current conditions index to edge higher, expectations to slip. Labor market performance is the key metric.