The Philippines: Recovery delayed, not denied - ANZ

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) offer their key insights into the Philippines Q1 GDP growth outlook, in light of the China novel coronavirus outbreak.

Key Quotes:

“The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in the region has emerged as a key downside risk to the nascent economic recovery in the Philippines.

Slower economic activity in China will have spill-over effects on the Philippine economy via potentially lower inward remittances, fewer tourist arrivals, and decreased import demand in China. A lower fuel import bill should counteract the downward pressure on the current account.

A hit to Q1 GDP growth looks likely, but further out, the impact on full-year growth will depend on how quickly the virus spread can be contained and how quickly infrastructure spending can be pressed into action.

Overall, the virus outbreak may delay the Philippines’ expected recovery but it is not likely to deny it entirely, especially given the expansionary policy mix.”