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3 Oct 2019

EUR/JPY: Bears taking on a key support level, plenty of downside risks in fundamentals

  • EUR/JPY bears have sunk their teeth in below trendline support.
  • Brexit, EZ and US data all playing their role in the downside.

EUR/JPY bears have sunk their teeth in below trendline support this month but have met a key support level in the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Sep swing lows and highs as traders take a breather ahead of the next key economic data complements to decide the fate of the US Dollar and stocks, for the near-term at least. 

EUR/JPY is currently trading at 117.43, below the 21-Day moving average and dead-on that 61.8% Fib following an extension of the September sell-off as European and US equities continue to bleed out on fears of a global economic slowdown and recession.  

Risk-off markets support EUR/JPY downside case

The risk-off session extended from yesterday's trade here in Asia but deepened in European trade and the news that the US intends to slap on tariffs on some EU imports only soured matters even further - US equities also fell heavily, extending the weak start the final quarter of the year and the Yen picked up a sizeable bid leaving questions over whether the US Dollar can recover some ground ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls data on Friday. The Euro rebounded in the US but the Yen was the top performer on the day. 

Brexit in the mix

Meanwhile, there will be a focus on Brexit this month and while this has been impacting the Pound most significantly and directly, the euro is sure to be under pressure, especially against the Yen in the build-up to the Brexit date at the end o f the month. 

The latest news was that UK PM Boris Johnson presented a letter to EU on changes to Irish border proposals that the UK see as sufficient to push towards a potential deal prior to the Queen’s Speech (14 Oct) and the EU Summit.

"Media and Irish responses were somewhat dismissive, though Juncker and even Barnier suggested that they were encouraging for progress even if more work is needed. UK’s DUP and the Conservative’s ERG stated approval. The UK government intends to prorogue parliament on 8 Oct in advance of the Queen’s Speech (this is much more in line with usual practice),"

analysts at Westpac explained.

Looking ahead to key data releases

Looking ahead, we have a number of eurozone data releases coming up with Market Services PMI sure to gather interest considering how much the eurozone has been relying on the service sector's robustness while the rest of the economy deteriorates. The data has of late started to give back some ground and another decline towards contraction territory will likely weigh on the euro leading into the key US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. 

Ahead of that, however, we will have the US data highlight in the ISM’s Sep non-manufacturing survey and should this too be a huge disappointment, as was the manufacturing version earlier the week, the euro will likely advance across the board. However, considering the close correlation EUR/JPY has with equity performance, it might be the downside risks that traders will need to consider.  

EUR/JPY levels

 

Oct 3, 2019

AUD/JPY technical analysis: Struggles between 61.8% Fibo, support-turned-resistance

Although oversold conditions of 14-bar RSI triggered the AUD/JPY pair’s recent pullback, the quote still stays below near-term key resistance (previous support)
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Oct 3, 2019

Brussels Ready To Bypass Boris Johnson And Grant A Brexit Extension – Times

The times is reporting that the European Union is ready to grant another Brexit delay even if the letter making a request for an extension beyond Octo
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