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5 Aug 2019

USD/JPY consolidates the recent slump to multi-month lows, below 106.00 mark amid US-China trade war fears

  • Renewed concerns about US-China trade war benefitted JPY’s safe-haven status.
  • Tumbling US bond yields undermined the USD and adds to the bearish pressure.
  • Extremely oversold conditions seemed to be the only factor helping limit the slide.

 The USD/JPY pair now seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a range near multi-month lows, below the 106.00 round figure mark.
 
The pair remained under some intense selling pressure for the third consecutive session on Monday and added to the last week's heavy losses, retreating nearly 350-pips from levels beyond the 109.00 handle - touched in the aftermath of a hawkish rate cut by the Fed.
 
The US President Donald Trump's abrupt announcement on Thursday to impose 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese goods triggered a fresh wave of risk-aversion trade and provided a strong boost to the Japanese Yen's perceived safe-haven status.
 
The global flight to safety was evident from the ongoing free-fall in the US Treasury bond yields, which prompted some aggressive US Dollar long-unwinding trade and further collaborated to the pair's sharp slide to the lowest level since early-January flash crash lows.
 
The bearish pressure remained unabated despite the Japanese Ministry of Finance Forex head Yoshiki Takeuchi's comments, saying that we are watching moves in the exchange rate with a sense of urgency and that exchange rate stability is important.
 
With renewed fears of a full-blown trade war between the world's two largest economies turning out to be an exclusive driver of the pair's recent steep decline, extremely oversold conditions might turn out to be the only factor helping limit further downside, at least for now.
 
Moving ahead, Monday's US economic docket - highlighting the release of ISM non-manufacturing PMI, will now be looked upon for some respite for the USD bulls, though any attempted bounce might still be seen as an opportunity to initiate fresh bearish positions.

Technical levels to watch

 

Aug 5, 2019

Switzerland Real Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (-0.5%) in June: Actual (0.7%)

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Aug 5, 2019

Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 1.36% below forecasts (1.6%) in July

Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 1.36% below forecasts (1.6%) in July
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