US: Average hourly earnings to increase 0.2% m/m and 3.1% y/y – Goldman Sachs

Analysts at Goldman Sachs are out with their expectations on Friday’s critical US labor market report for the month of January that will drop in at 1330 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“Weather likely contributed to last month's blockbuster report, January was also relatively warm and dry during the reference week

The BLS has also clarified that furloughed and unpaid government workers will be included in tomorrow's payroll counts (though contractor layoffs could weigh in some industries)

Estimate the unemployment rate increased one tenth to 4.0% in January … mostly reflecting the furlough of nearly 400k federal workers that the BLS plans to classify as "unemployed on temporary layoff”.

 Expect average hourly earnings will increase 0.2% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year.”