Brexit: Probability of 'no deal' is relatively low - ING

"We think parliament will approve the deal with relatively few roadblocks," argue ING analysts.

Key quotes

"In addition to raising the odds of 'no deal', attaching tricky amendments could also put pressure on Theresa May to call another election. While she would not take such a decision lightly given her party's position in the polls, and it would also require two-thirds of MPs to agree, the Prime Minister may view this as the only option if there is no majority in Parliament for the final agreement."

"Similarly, with pressure reportedly rising on Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to put the deal to voters, a second referendum also cannot be ruled out - although we'd note around six-nine months are required to pass the necessary legislation, which is unlikely to be feasible come January 2019. In either situation (election or referendum), an extension to the Article 50 period would almost certainly be required."

"For Brexiteer MPs, who would be the most likely faction in Parliament to resist the approval of the withdrawal agreement, all of these scenarios are undesirable as they would raise the risk that Brexit is reversed at the last minute."

"So while the parliamentary process may create a pretty uncertain period in early 2019, we feel that the most likely outcome is that Parliament approves the deal, enabling the transition period to commence from next March."