US: Upside risk to GDP forecasts - AmpGFX

On Friday, US Q1 GDP is released and partial indicators point to a moderation in Q1 from the very strong finish to last year (3.2% SAAR In Q3 and 2.9% in Q4), according to According to Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital. 

Key Quotes

“Q1 has been below trend in four out of the last five years and has been said to reflect “residual seasonality”. It may also reflect more severe weather patterns that have battered part of the country in the winter.  The market forecast is for a 2.0% SAAR increase.”

“This is consistent with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast of 2.0%,  However, ‘Nowcasts’ by two other regional Federal Reserves (The New York Fed’s 2.9% and the St Louis Fed’s 3.5%) suggest upside risk to this outcome.  The higher nowcasts from these other surveys reflect their inclusion of sentiment and business surveys (so-called soft data).”