USDJPY: Either a small bounce or a sharp break towards 95 - SocGen

Olivier Korber, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the USD/JPY currently presents a very asymmetric profile with the next move likely to be either a small bounce or a sharp break towards 95.

Key Quotes

“We remain bullish in the medium term as the Fed could still hike and a debasement policy may become increasingly attractive in Japan to create inflation and spur trade. But an imminent break is a serious risk.

On the edge of psychological support at 100, within a bearish channel. The price action shows that the market is nervously watching at 100. However, this level sits in the middle of a bearish channel that ironically started on the day the BoJ set negative rates. Its new bounds will be 93.50/102 on 21 September, when the BoJ meets next.

Between Fed patience and BoJ impotence? The latest FOMC minutes tempered Dudley’s hawkishess. Jackson Hole has usually been a dovish event, and the Fed is unlikely to rock the boat ahead of the US election. A patient Fed should leave the dollar under pressure. Besides, the BoJ could be pressured to be bold in fighting excessive currency strength. But the rates tool failed to weaken the yen in January, the fiscal package has been already announced and the marginal efficacy of QE is decreasing while the JGB market is drained.

The BoJ could still boost forward guidance, but reversing yen gains will prove challenging.”