All eyes on the UK referendum on EU membership – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, suggests that the UK polls will be open from 7am to 10pm BST and voters will be asked, “Should the UK remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

Key Quotes

“An official exit poll by broadcasters isn’t expected, and the bulk of the declarations from 382 local counting areas is anticipated to come between 3am and 5am BST on 24 June. At the time of writing, the average of the last few opinion polls put ‘Leave’ slightly in front after having made up ground during June, but the result is seen as too close to call at this stage.

With the bookmakers’ implied probability of ‘Brexit’ having risen to ~40% a week out from the poll, in the absence of any decisive indications of shifting opinion there is the potential for significant market movements as the results start to emerge.”