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22 Mar 2016
EUR/CHF eyes 1.15 in 12-month – Danske Bank
Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Christin Tuxen expects the cross to head towards the 1.15 area in a 12-month view.
Key Quotes
“With the ECB moving away from the exchange/interest rate channel for easing policy, the long-standing pressure on the SNB from EUR weakness is fading”.
“EUR/CHF has moved to levels where the SNB is more comfortable that the Swiss export industry is able to cope and recent communication from the SNB suggests that the central bank is less determined to bring about outright CHF weakness, and thus willing to accept EUR/CHF staying at these levels for now”.
“Unless EUR/CHF takes a significant dive, we think SNB will stay put for now. Ahead of the UK’s EU referendum EUR/CHF may see a move lower on Brexit fears and we still target 1.08 in 3M”.
“Longer term, we continue to expect fundamentals to support a higher EUR/CHF, with a short-lived relief rally towards 1.12 in 6M (prev. 1.11) as the UK stays in the EU, followed by a move to 1.15 in 12M (unchanged.)”.
Key Quotes
“With the ECB moving away from the exchange/interest rate channel for easing policy, the long-standing pressure on the SNB from EUR weakness is fading”.
“EUR/CHF has moved to levels where the SNB is more comfortable that the Swiss export industry is able to cope and recent communication from the SNB suggests that the central bank is less determined to bring about outright CHF weakness, and thus willing to accept EUR/CHF staying at these levels for now”.
“Unless EUR/CHF takes a significant dive, we think SNB will stay put for now. Ahead of the UK’s EU referendum EUR/CHF may see a move lower on Brexit fears and we still target 1.08 in 3M”.
“Longer term, we continue to expect fundamentals to support a higher EUR/CHF, with a short-lived relief rally towards 1.12 in 6M (prev. 1.11) as the UK stays in the EU, followed by a move to 1.15 in 12M (unchanged.)”.