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6 Nov 2015
US Nonfarm: Key to December rate hike expectations - TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Prashant Newnaha, Rates Strategist at TD Securities, suggests that the US October employment report will be a key data point for the market in gauging the tone of domestic economic activity and benchmarking the prospect for a December Fed hike.
Key Quotes
“TD’s forecast is for a rebound in the pace of employment growth to 193K from the disappointing 142K pace the month before. The market consensus is for a 185K gain. Despite the rebound in jobs growth, TD expects the UE rate to remain unchanged at 5.1% versus the market consensus for a decline to 5.0%. Wage growth should remain relatively tepid (TD: +0.1% m/m, vs mkt: +0.2% m/m) following the flat print the month before.”
“The market will also pay close attention to remarks by Governor Brainard and District President Bullard as they guidance us on the near term policy bias at the Fed.”
Key Quotes
“TD’s forecast is for a rebound in the pace of employment growth to 193K from the disappointing 142K pace the month before. The market consensus is for a 185K gain. Despite the rebound in jobs growth, TD expects the UE rate to remain unchanged at 5.1% versus the market consensus for a decline to 5.0%. Wage growth should remain relatively tepid (TD: +0.1% m/m, vs mkt: +0.2% m/m) following the flat print the month before.”
“The market will also pay close attention to remarks by Governor Brainard and District President Bullard as they guidance us on the near term policy bias at the Fed.”