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3 Jun 2015
Trading the ECB Meeting – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Strategy Team at TD Securities shares their base case for the ECB Meeting ahead and the possible impact on EUR/USD.
Key Quotes
“Rate Decision: 100%: All rates left unchanged. EURUSD doesn’t react.”
“Opening Statement: 80%: No new measures, reiterate full implementation of APP. ECB likely to add about 0.2ppts to 2015 GDP and HICP forecasts, but leave 2016-17 unchanged. Growth risks “more balanced” and inflation to “remain very low” but no longer “or still negative.”
Our base case for the statement is mildly bullish for EURUSD; spot may rally to take out critical resistance at 1.1208.”
“Q&A: 70%: On front-loaded buying, Draghi plays down as just technical issue. On Greece and ELA, ECB remains a “rules-based institution.” And on rates levels, Draghi suggests that move higher in rates vindicates the impact QE is having on stabilizing long-term expectations and why ECB remains committed to fully implementing QE program.
EURUSD likely drifts back below 1.12, stabilizing ahead of Friday’s US NFP report.”
Key Quotes
“Rate Decision: 100%: All rates left unchanged. EURUSD doesn’t react.”
“Opening Statement: 80%: No new measures, reiterate full implementation of APP. ECB likely to add about 0.2ppts to 2015 GDP and HICP forecasts, but leave 2016-17 unchanged. Growth risks “more balanced” and inflation to “remain very low” but no longer “or still negative.”
Our base case for the statement is mildly bullish for EURUSD; spot may rally to take out critical resistance at 1.1208.”
“Q&A: 70%: On front-loaded buying, Draghi plays down as just technical issue. On Greece and ELA, ECB remains a “rules-based institution.” And on rates levels, Draghi suggests that move higher in rates vindicates the impact QE is having on stabilizing long-term expectations and why ECB remains committed to fully implementing QE program.
EURUSD likely drifts back below 1.12, stabilizing ahead of Friday’s US NFP report.”