UK elections: A labour win would come as a big surprise – Nomura

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Research Analysts at Nomura, share the results of their UK client survey , noting that the expectations for the Conservative party to be on the top are high, and a Labour win would be surprising.

Key Quotes

“With the UK election proving difficult to predict and the polling for the new House of Commons still close between a Labour or Conservatives “victory” we asked our clients for their view on what election outcome they expect and what the alternatives may mean for markets.”

“The results give a clear and contrasting difference between the Labour and Conservative party, with the skew of results for more UK asset price downside if Labour is to lead the next government relative to the upside that they expect under a Conservative victory. They expect to know who will lead the next government within two weeks of the results, whereby a large margin expects that to be the Conservatives on top.”

“If it is Labour instead, that would come as a significant surprise, could affect their expectations for the timing of the first BoE rate hike and lead to some sizeable asset price movement in their view.”