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2 Aug 2013
Flash: NFP´s above 200k? - Deutsche Bank
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank notes that DB´s expectation of a NFP headline print of +225k is at the very top of Street estimates and about 15K higher than the next highest estimate from another bank.
Key Quotes
“If we do get a +225k number today, it would be the highest July payroll number since 2005.”
“The Bloomberg median consensus is still around 185k, but a number of estimates in the last 24 hours have been in the 190-210k range - due in part to yesterday’s above-consensus ISM reading and Wednesday’s +200k ADP employment report.”
“As we wrote on Monday, any number above 200k will certainly further increase the odds of a September taper.”
“The consensus estimate for private payrolls +195k (vs 202k last month), and economists are expecting 0.1ppt drop in the unemployment rate to 7.5% (DB expect +230k and 7.4% respectively).”
Key Quotes
“If we do get a +225k number today, it would be the highest July payroll number since 2005.”
“The Bloomberg median consensus is still around 185k, but a number of estimates in the last 24 hours have been in the 190-210k range - due in part to yesterday’s above-consensus ISM reading and Wednesday’s +200k ADP employment report.”
“As we wrote on Monday, any number above 200k will certainly further increase the odds of a September taper.”
“The consensus estimate for private payrolls +195k (vs 202k last month), and economists are expecting 0.1ppt drop in the unemployment rate to 7.5% (DB expect +230k and 7.4% respectively).”