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10 Apr 2025

USD/CAD holds losses below 1.4100 ahead of US CPI data

  • USD/CAD depreciates as the US Dollar stays on the back foot ahead of the closely watched US CPI release.
  • US inflation is expected to rise at an annual rate of 2.6% in March, slightly lower than February’s 2.8% reading. 
  • The CAD may come under pressure as Oil prices soften amid renewed demand concerns triggered by escalating US-China trade tensions.

USD/CAD loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 1.4090 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) remains subdued ahead of the high-impact Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for March set to be published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.

US inflation is set to rise at an annual pace of 2.6% in March, down slightly from the 2.8% reported in February. Core CPI inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is expected to ease to 3% in the same period from a year earlier, compared to a 3.1% growth in the previous month.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes suggested that policymakers nearly unanimously agree that the US economy faces the dual risk of rising inflation and slowing growth, warning of “difficult tradeoffs” ahead for the Federal Reserve.

Fed officials continue to downplay the immediate impact of escalating trade tensions, maintaining that policy decisions will remain data-driven. Market participants are now pricing in just a 40% chance of a rate cut at next month’s Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

However, the downside for the USD/CAD pair may be limited as crude Oil prices weaken. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $60.20 per barrel, with prices under pressure due to renewed demand concerns stemming from heightened US-China trade tensions.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

Apr 10, 2025

GBP/USD: Still trading in a range – UOB Group

Pound Sterling (GBP) is still trading in a range vs US Dollar (USD), expected to be between 1.2750 and 1.2870. In the longer run, GBP could decline further; it is unclear if it can reach the next major support at 1.2580, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
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Apr 10, 2025

TTF gas prices drop over 7% – ING

European natural gas prices plunged sharply, with TTF falling over 7% amid heavy fund selling. A pause in tariffs may offer a temporary lift, but market positioning remains cautious, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
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