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25 Jan 2024

USD/CHF improves to near 0.8650 despite the downbeat US yields

  • USD/CHF rebounds despite the decline in the US bond yields.
  • US GDP Q4 is expected to ease at 2.0% from the previous reading of 4.9%.
  • Traders await next week’s Swiss Real Retail Sales and the ZEW Survey to gauge the Swiss economic landscape.

USD/CHF moves lower to near 0.8650 during the Asian session on Thursday, retracing its losses registered in the previous session. The US Dollar Index (DXY) maintains a steady position despite the downbeat US Treasury yields, which underpins the USD/CHF pair. The DXY hovers near 103.30 with the 2-year and 10-year yields on US bond coupons standing at 4.36% and 4.14%, respectively, by the press time.

However, the US Dollar (USD) was challenged due to risk-on market sentiment, avoiding the positive PMI data from the United States (US). The market sentiment is influenced by expectations related to the Fed's monetary policy, and traders are adjusting their positions accordingly. Additionally, the preliminary US Gross Domestic Product Annualized report is set to be released on Thursday, with expectations of a reading of 2.0% in the fourth quarter, compared to the previous reading of 4.9%.

If the actual US GDP reading aligns with market expectations, it could increase the likelihood of the Fed reducing policy rates in the March meeting. As reflected in the CME's FedWatch tool, the market sentiment suggests that bets on a March rate cut from the Fed have dropped to below 40%, a substantial decrease from around 80% recorded just a month ago.

Earlier this week, Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Thomas Jordan mentioned that the robust Swiss Franc (CHF) has played a role in capping inflation. In addition, he expressed confidence in the economy, stating that economists are confident that there won’t be a recession. However, Jordon emphasized that while a recession is not expected, the outlook points to weak growth.

Next week, economic indicators like Real Retail Sales and the ZEW Survey will be monitored by traders to gauge the health of the Swiss economy and anticipate potential changes in SNB’s monetary policy.

 

Jan 25, 2024

Japan's Kanda: Important for forex rates to move stably reflecting fundamentals

Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda commented on the weaker Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday.
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Jan 25, 2024

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Holds below 161.00 ahead of ECB rate decision

The EUR/JPY cross recovers some lost ground near 160.75 during the early European session on Thursday.
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