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4 Sep 2023

EUR/SEK Price Analysis: Extends its upside below the 11.9000 mark ahead of ECB Lagarde's speech

  • EUR/SEK extends its upside around 11.8875 for the four straight days.
  • The cross trades within the ascending trend-channel on the four-hour chart; the RSI stands in bullish territory above 50.
  • The initial support level is located at 11.8650; a high of September 1 at 11.9240 acts as an immediate resistance level.

The EUR/SEK cross trades in positive territory for the fourth consecutive day. The cross currently trades near 11.8875, losing 0.15% on the day. Market players await the European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde's Speech later in the day and will find a clear direction around the cross.

Last week, Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen stated that the Swedish Krona's (SEK) weakness is unjustified. The policymaker added that the Swedish Krona is very far from a country with a collapsing currency due to several factors.

From the technical perspective, EUR/SEK trades within the ascending trend-channel since the middle of July on the four-hour chart. Additionally, the cross holds above the 50- and 100-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMAs), which means the further upside looks favorable for the time being. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands in bullish territory above 50, indicating the path of least resistance seems is to the upside for now.

The initial support level for the cross is located near the lower limit of the ascending trend-channel at 11.8650. The next contention level will emerge at 11.8418 (100-hour EMA). The additional downside filter is located at 11.7375 (a low of August 15).

On the upside, a high of September 1 at 11.9240 acts as an immediate resistance level for the cross. The next upside stop to watch is 11.9500 (a high of July 7). The key barrier for EUR/SEK is located at 11.9625, representing a Year-To-Date (YTD) high. Any meaningful follow-through buying above the latter will see a rally to the next critical area at 12.0000. The mentioned level portrays a psychological round figure and the upper boundary of the ascending trend-channel.
 

EUR/SEK four-hour chart

 

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USD/CNH risks a deeper drop below 7.2390 – UOB

Further downside in USD/CNH appears likely on a breach of 7.2390, argue Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group. Key
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