Even the dovish-dominated ECB is unlikely to cut its rates next year – Commerzbank

The ECB has switched off the autopilot. Economists at Commerzbank note that from now on, interest rate hikes would depend on the macroeconomic data.

Autopilot switched off

The ECB switched off the autopilot at today's Council meeting. From now on the data will determine whether the ECB raises its interest rates again or not. 

Because we expect a significant decline in inflation and a recession in the second half of the year, we continue to not forecast a rate hike in September. On the other hand, we doubt the market's view that the ECB will cut rates as early as 2024.