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3 May 2023

When is the US ISM Services PMI and how could it affect EUR/USD?

US ISM Services PMI Overview

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release the Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - also known as the ISM Services PMI – at 14:00 GMT this Wednesday. The gauge is expected to come in at 51.8 for April, up a little from 51.2 in the previous month. Given that the Fed looks more at inflation than growth, investors will keep a close eye on the Prices Paid sub-component, which is anticipated to edge higher from 59.5 in March to 59.9 during the reported month.

How Could It Affect EUR/USD?

Ahead of the key release, the US Dollar (USD) drifts lower for the second successive day and retreats further from a three-week high touched the previous day. Concerns over the US debt ceiling, along with renewed fears of a full-blown banking crisis, drag the US Treasury bond yields lower and continue to weigh on the buck, which fails to gain any respite from the upbeat US ADP report. Hence, any disappointment from the US ISM Services PMI could exert additional downward pressure on the Greenback and assist the EUR/USD pair to capitalize on its intraday positive move.

In contrast, a stronger headline print and higher-than-expected Prices Paid Index might do little to impress the USD bulls amid expectations that the Fed will pause its rate-hiking cycle sooner rather than later. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the upside and any intraday dip is more likely to get bought into. The immediate market reaction, however, should remain limited as the market focus remains glued to the outcome of the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, scheduled to be announced later during the US session.

Key Notes

  •  US ADP Jobs/ISM Service PMI Preview: Slowing but still positive

  •  EUR/USD Forecast: Euro bulls retain control as focus shifts to Fed

  •  EUR/USD climbs to weekly highs past 1.1040, focus remains on Fed

About the US ISM manufacturing PMI

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector. It is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in the US. A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).

May 3, 2023

S&P 500: Uptrend to extend once the index establishes beyond 4195/4220 – SocGen

S&P 500 is probing upper limit of base near 4195/4220. Economists at Société Générale expect the uptrend to extend beyond here. Golden crossover point
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May 3, 2023

EUR/USD set to grind higher and reach the 1.12 area – Scotiabank

EUR/USD’s rebound from mid-1.09s extends. Economists at Scotiabank discuss the pair’s technical outlook. Broad range trade holds “EUR/USD continues to
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