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16 Mar 2023

AUD/NZD jumps 50 pips to near 1.0750 on downbeat New Zealand Q4 GDP, Aussie Employment eyed

  • AUD/NZD picks up bids to rebound from 2.5-month low as NZ Q4 GDP disappoints.
  • New Zealand Q4 GDP drops to -0.6% QoQ versus -0.2% expected and 2.0% prior.
  • Credit Suisse turmoil previously weighed on the cross-currency pair.
  • Australia employment report for February, RBA Bulletin eyed for fresh impulse.

AUD/NZD picks up bids to reverse from the lowest levels in a year, jumping nearly 50 pips to 1.0745 after New Zealand’s (NZ) fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) disappoints Kiwi traders during early Thursday. The figures become even more worrisome after the global rating giant S&P warned of an NZ rating cut.

NZ Q4 GDP slide to -0.6% QoQ versus -0.2% market forecasts and 2.0% previous readings. Further, the YoY figures also eased to 2.2% compared to 3.3% expected and 6.4% in previous readings.

Also read: Breaking: NZD/USD dumps on big miss in NZ GDP

On Wednesday, Bloomberg quoted Anthony Walker, a director of sovereign ratings for Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific at S&P to mention that "New Zealand’s credit grades with S&P Global Ratings could come under pressure if the nation’s current account deficit remains too big." It should be noted that the national Current Account Deficit shrank to $-9.45B in Q4, from $-10.2B in Q3. However, the Current Account – GDP Ratio slumped to -8.9% from -7.9% prior and -8.4% market forecasts.

Apart from the data at home and fears of the NZ rating cut, the market’s risk-off mood previously weighed on the AUD/NZD prices, mainly due to the Australia Dollar’s (AUD) risk-barometer status. The sentiment soured as the banking crisis reached Europe with a G-SIB – a global systemically important bank, namely Credit Suisse (CS), struggling with its Credit Default Swaps (CDS).

That said, the Yields slumped and the European stock market closed in the red but Wall Street closed mixed as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) stepped forward to help CS.

Looking ahead, AUD/NZD is likely to reverse amid broad risk-off mood and challenges for the AUD. However, today’s Aussie jobs report for February and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) fourth-quarter (Q4) Bulletin will be important for the pair traders to watch for fresh impulse.

Technical analysis

Despite the latest rebound, a daily closing beyond a three-week-old resistance line, currently around 1.0735 appears necessary for the AUD/NZD bulls to keep the reins.

 

Mar 16, 2023

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The NZD/USD pair has slipped firmer below 0.6160 as Statistics New Zealand has reported weak Gross Domestic Product (Q4) data. The economy contracted
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AUD/USD struggles to extend recovery above 0.6620 ahead of Australian Employment

The AUD/USD pair is facing barricades in extending its recovery move above the immediate resistance of 0.6620 in the early Asian session. The Aussie a
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